Keep collecting: accurate species distribution modelling requires more collections than previously thought

Species distribution models (SDMs) are a general suite of models that relate the frequency of species occurrences (presence only or presence/absence) to sets of environmental variables. These relationships can then be used to generate predictions of the geographic areas where the species are expected to occur, making SDMs powerful and widely used tools in conservation biology, biogeography and ecology (Franklin, 2009; Richardson & Whittaker, 2010). SDMs are also increasingly used to predict where species may occur in the future under different climate change scenarios. These predictions can then be used to predict extinction risks because of changes in habitat area as species ‘‘migrate’’ from their Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA, Center for Tropical Plant Conservation, Fairchild Tropical Botanic Garden, Coral Gables, FL, USA, Department of Biology, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC, USA, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Group, Center for Energy, Environment, and Sustainability, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC, USA